Ground Coffee

1. Green Bean Origin

Canada grows no coffee. Every gram of green bean is imported. In a typical month, about one-quarter of Canada's coffee bean imports come from Colombia, with Brazil, Honduras, Guatemala, Mexico, and Peru making up most of the remainder. This dependence on imports from major producing countries makes Canada vulnerable to global supply chain constraints, climate change, and geopolitical issues in coffee-producing regions.

In 2023, Canada imported approximately 186,000 tonnes of green coffee beans, valued at around $855 million USD. For the brands in your template, the relevant supply chains are large-scale commercial ones: Maxwell House is owned by Post Holdings (via the 2015 acquisition from Kraft), and Nabob is a Canadian brand owned by JDE Peet's (formerly Jacobs Douwe Egberts). Both source Arabica-dominant blends at scale. No Name is supplied through Loblaw's private label manufacturing network.

2. Commodity Trading & Pricing

Green coffee is traded on futures markets — Arabica on the New York ICE exchange, Robusta on the London LIFFE. The C market is highly volatile and subject to a wide range of factors that can cause prices to swing dramatically, sometimes within hours. Standard retail ground coffee blends use primarily Arabica, making the New York futures price the primary commodity benchmark.

ICE Futures New York arabica coffee hit record highs in early 2025, topping $4 per pound for the first time ever in February, adding to gains of 70% in 2024. This was driven by extreme weather events — Brazil grappled with drought and unexpected frosts, while Vietnam, the world's second-largest producer and a major robusta exporter, dealt with heavy rains that slowed production. By midsummer 2025, Arabica futures had settled closer to $3.45/lb, and the ICO Composite Indicator Price in June 2025 averaged 295 cents per pound — still 46% higher than the same period the prior year.

The World Bank projects some relief ahead: Arabica prices are projected to fall by 13% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, as production recovers — especially in Colombia, the world's second-largest Arabica producer.

3. Roasting & Processing

Canada is primarily a roasting and re-export nation, not a production one. The Canadian coffee production and roasting industry reached $4.1 billion in revenue in 2025, growing 8.4% year-over-year, with Ontario cementing its place as the country's coffee manufacturing hub due to its dense population, robust logistics, and significant retail presence.

For Edmonton specifically, beans destined for the major retail brands are roasted at large central facilities (primarily in Ontario), then packaged and shipped west through distributor networks. There is also a local Edmonton presence: Tea & Coffee Company operates an Edmonton roasting facility, primarily for foodservice wholesale accounts rather than mass retail. For specialty and artisan channels, Calgary-based roasters such as Phil & Sebastian and Rosso supply the Alberta market, but these are outside the mainstream grocery SKUs in your template.

4. Import & Distribution to Retail

Canada also imports 3.9 million kg of roasted coffee monthly, most of it from the United States. Many Canadian roasters and retailers source green beans through US-based green coffee importers and traders — a routing that proved problematic in 2025 given the tariff environment (see below).

For Edmonton retail, distribution follows the standard grocery supply chain: national distribution centres (often in Calgary for Alberta) receive product from roasters/manufacturers, which is then cross-docked to individual stores. The distance from Ontario manufacturing centres to Edmonton adds meaningful freight cost compared to markets closer to the production base.

The following are the key nodes in the supply chain that drive price at Edmonton grocery shelves.

① Commodity Price Volatility — Major Impact

This is the single largest price driver right now. In August 2025, Canadians paid 27.9% more for coffee at the grocery store than a year earlier, with roasted or ground coffee up 35.2%. The commodity surge flows through with a lag of typically six to nine months as retailers exhaust forward-contracted inventory.

Factory gate prices for the coffee and tea commodity group charged by Canadian manufacturers rose 30.1% year-over-year in July 2025, as measured by the Industrial Product Price Index. Manufacturers absorb some of this, but a significant portion passes downstream.

② Tariff Disruption — Significant and Ongoing

The Canada-US trade dispute in 2025 created a serious cost shock for Canadian roasters. On March 4, 2025, Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs on US imports including coffee, affecting both green and roasted coffee and resulting in additional costs for the many Canadian roasters and cafés that rely on US importers and wholesalers.

Ground coffee prices in Canada surged 19% since the start of 2025 according to Statistics Canada, making it one of the fastest-rising food items on grocery shelves. Even after coffee futures dropped more than 30% from their peak, retail prices remained stubbornly high — pointing to tariff policy as a key factor in the divergence.

Canada removed most CUSMA-related counter-tariffs on US goods as of September 1, 2025, though tariffs on strategic sectors were maintained. The situation remains fluid and has added structural uncertainty to sourcing costs.

③ Currency Risk — Persistent Background Factor

All green coffee is priced in USD. The average USD/CAD rate in 2025 was approximately 1.40, with a high of 1.4543 — meaning Canadian importers were paying significantly more in domestic-currency terms for the same volume of beans. A weaker loonie amplifies any commodity price increase and is a structural cost the supply chain cannot avoid given 100% import dependence on green beans.

④ Production Concentration & Climate Risk — Growing Structural Risk

Brazil accounts for 38% of total global coffee bean production, meaning swings in production there can influence global supplies and prices. The 2024 drought — described as the worst in Brazil's history — drove the price spike that has persisted through 2025. This concentration risk is a systemic feature of the supply chain, not an aberration.

⑤ Roasting & Packaging Costs

Energy costs at roasting facilities, packaging materials (primarily flexible packaging for ground coffee), and labour all contribute to the factory gate price. Rising costs on packaging materials, labels, and environmentally friendly practices have added pressure on roasters. These costs are relatively stable compared to commodity swings but have trended upward with general inflation.

⑥ Edmonton's Geographic Position — Modest but Real

Edmonton is at the end of a long domestic supply chain. Product manufactured in Ontario travels roughly 3,400 km by rail or truck to Alberta distribution centres. Alberta's freight market, while competitive, adds a per-unit cost that consumers in Ontario or Quebec don't face. This is typically partially absorbed in national pricing by large grocery chains (who maintain near-uniform national shelf prices), meaning Alberta shoppers may not see it directly, but it reduces margin at the retail or distribution level.

⑦ Retail Concentration

The Edmonton grocery market is dominated by a small number of chains (Sobeys, Loblaw/No Frills/Real Canadian Superstore, Walmart, Costco). Grocery prices have risen roughly 22% since 2022, nearly double broader inflation. Retailer margin behaviour and promotional pricing cycles (ground coffee is a frequent loss-leader category) affect the consumer price but do not change the underlying supply chain cost structure.

The dominant signal for ground coffee prices in Edmonton over the next 12–18 months is commodity relief. World Bank projections point to meaningful Arabica price declines in 2026 as Colombian and Brazilian harvests recover. However, tariff policy risk remains elevated given the unsettled Canada-US trade relationship, and the loonie's trajectory is uncertain. Even if green bean prices fall, the pass-through to shelf prices tends to be slower than the pass-through of price increases — so consumers should expect a gradual, not immediate, moderation.

Sources

1. Statistics Canada — "It's costing you a latte more for that cup of coffee lately" (September 2025) — Canadian retail coffee price increases, import volumes, factory gate prices, household spending data https://www.statcan.gc.ca/o1/en/plus/8518-its-costing-you-latte-more-cup-coffee-lately-and-heres-why

2. Retail Insider — "Why Canadian Coffee Prices Are Unfairly Inflated by Tariffs" (July 2025) — 19% ground coffee price surge, tariff policy divergence from futures prices https://retail-insider.com/retail-insider/2025/07/why-canadian-coffee-prices-are-unfairly-inflated-by-tariffs/

3. Perfect Daily Grind — "How will US-Canada tariffs reshape coffee trade in North America?" (April 2025) — Canada's retaliatory tariffs on US coffee imports, impact on Canadian roasters https://perfectdailygrind.com/2025/04/us-canada-tariffs-green-coffee-trade-north-america/

4. Coffee Association of Canada — Tariff Updates & Resources page — Timeline of Canada-US tariff actions affecting coffee, CUSMA exemptions, September 2025 tariff removal https://coffeeassoc.com/tariff-updates-resources/

5. Food Business News — "Coffee prices at record highs amid tight global supplies" (February 2025) — Arabica futures hitting $4/lb, Brazil and Vietnam production data, global supply breakdown https://www.foodbusinessnews.net/articles/27682-coffee-prices-at-record-highs-amid-tight-global-supplies

6. Got Your Six Coffee Co. — "Why Coffee Prices Are Still Rising in 2025" — Arabica futures trajectory through 2025, ICO Composite Indicator Price (June 2025), tariff impacts on US imports https://gotyoursixcoffee.com/why-coffee-prices-are-still-rising-in-2025-what-it-means-for-you/

7. World Bank / OpenData Blog — "Beverage prices moderate as coffee and cocoa supply recover" (December 2025) — Arabica price projections for 2026–2027, global production forecasts https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/-beverage-prices-moderate-as-coffee-and-cocoa-supply-recover

8. De La Gente — "Pricing Arabica Coffee Beans: A Guide to the Coffee C Market" — How the ICE C market works, Arabica vs. Robusta pricing mechanics https://www.dlgcoffee.org/coffee-news/pricing-arabica-coffee-beans-a-consumers-guide-to-the-coffee-c-market

9. IBISWorld — Coffee & Tea Production in Canada (2025) — Industry revenue ($4.1B), Ontario as roasting hub, volatility and sourcing diversification trends https://www.ibisworld.com/canada/industry/coffee-tea-production/272/

10. Freshdi — "Top 6 Green Coffee Suppliers in Canada in Year 2025" — Canadian green bean import volumes ($855M, 186,000 tonnes), re-export trends https://freshdi.com/blog/top-6-green-coffee-suppliers-in-canada-in-year-2025/

11. Expert Market Research / Research and Markets — Canada Coffee Market Report 2025–2034 — Import origin breakdown (Colombia, Brazil, etc.), climate and supply chain vulnerability https://www.expertmarketresearch.com/reports/canada-coffee-market

12. Western Grocer — "Building Resilient Food Supply Chains Through Canadian Innovation" — 22% grocery price increase since 2022, import cost as primary driver of 2025 food inflation https://westerngrocer.com/building-resilient-food-supply-chains-through-canadian-innovation/

13. Exchange-Rates.org — USD/CAD 2025 history — Average rate of 1.3974, high of 1.4543 https://www.exchange-rates.org/exchange-rate-history/usd-cad-2025

14. Tea & Coffee Company (Edmonton) — Confirmation of Edmonton-based roasting facility serving local wholesale market https://teaandcoffeecompany.com/wholesale